There may be over a year to go before the parliamentary elections but campaigning is firmly underway with the release of a new poll suggesting that Conservative MP, Angie Bray, will lose the Ealing Central and Acton (ECA) seat.

Electoral Calculus, a statistical website run by financial analyst Martin Baxter, which factors in opinion poll data to extrapolate election results is predicting that Labour candidate Rupa Huq, will overturn the defeat suffered at the hands of the Tories in 2010.

The site states that Labour has an 62.9 per cent chance of winning in Ealing Central and Acton and estimates the party will poll 39 per cent of votes, compared with 31 per cent of votes for the Tories.

The figures are almost a complete reverse to the share in 2010 when Labour secured 30 per cent and the Tories 38 per cent. It also points to a collapse in the Lib Dem vote which would see them slump to just 12 per cent, finishing in fourth place behind UKIP.

Dr Huq commented:

“Obviously the election is a way off. We at Ealing Labour are taking nothing for granted and working hard for every vote both in this May’s council elections and in 2015. These figures are in line with what our own polling is telling us: so far I’ve been struck by the positive response on the doorstep meeting voters who are fed up with the coalition government who have unleashed a cost of living crisis on us all, including former Lib Dems who feel let down by Clegg whop reneged on all his pre-election promises to join forces with the Tories the moment he got a sniff of power.”

Current incumbent, Angie Bray, says the poll does not reflect local concerns:

'' ..the method used by Electoral Calculus is to put together all the national opinion polls and extrapolate from whatever figure they get which doesn't exactly reflect local nuances.  However Ealing Central and Acton was and remains a highly marginal three-way seat and I continue to work hard on behalf of the community.  I would never take anything for granted.''

Meanwhile the Liberal Democrat candidate for ECA, Jon Ball, is more dismissive:

'' The hunches from Electoral Calculus need to be taken with a whole packet of salt. The website forecasts a 66 seat Labour overall majority while almost all polls and commentators predict that the most likely outcome of the next election is that no party will secure an overall majority and a new coalition will be formed. The website admits that it takes no account of local factors, using a uniform national swing modified by some tweaks of the author's own design. The website's FAQ admits that "any individual seat could be wrongly predicted. Also if the opinion polls are wrong, that will cause more seats to go wrong.''

Electoral Calculus is also forecasting Labour success in Ealing Southall and Ealing North at next year’s election. It predicts both Virendra Sharma and Stephen Pound will increase their majorities in Ealing Southall and Ealing North respectively and gives each of them a better than 98% chance of winning.

The General election is set to take place in May 2015.

 

 

 

 

February 25th 2014