Low Turnout Could Make Ealing By-elections Unpredictable
Labour expected to hold two seats with Hanger Hill hotly contested
The Lib Dems and the Conservatives have been campaigning hard in Hanger Hill
October 3, 2024
Members of the main parties in Ealing borough agree that turnout could be the deciding factor in three forthcoming by elections.
People campaigning for Labour, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have all told us that they believe that apathy could play a big part and less than a hundred votes either way could be decisive.
The three wards that will be contested are Hanger Hill, Northolt Mandeville and South Acton after councillors who were elected in the local elections in 2022 became MPs in this year’s general election.
The by-elections will take place on Thursday, 10 October and there has been a stark contrast between the seats with little campaigning other than in Hanger Hill where both the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives have concentrated their efforts as they both believe they have a chance of winning.
The Lib Dems have been wheeling out prominent party figures from across the capital to back their candidate, Jonathan Oxley. Among those who have joined his campaign are Baroness Caroline Pidgeon, Munira Wilson, MP for Twickenham and Luke Taylor, MP for Sutton and Cheam.
The Conservative candidate, Sean Hanrahan, has been able to call on support from a host of local party associations including from Brent, Harrow and Hillingdon.
The ward incorporates parts of Ealing north of the tube lines and east of Ealing Broadway up to Corringway including the Brentham Estate and areas either side of the North Circular north of the A40.
In 2022 Athena Zissimos topped the poll for the Lib Dems but the other two of the three seats in the ward were taken by Fabio Conti and Gregory Stafford for the Conservatives. Jonathan Oxley finished sixth but was only 112 votes behind the third placed candidate.
Cllr Zissimos was the first non-Tory candidate to be elected to the ward this century in what had previously been one of the Conservatives safest seats in the borough. Her win, which was may have been partly enabled by boundary changes, helped the Liberal Democrats become the largest opposition party on the council for the first time and, should they succeed in taking a second seat in Hanger Hill, they will have seven councillors compared to four for the Conservatives.
Map of the Hanger Hill ward. Picture: Open Maps
The focus on Hanger Hill has meant there has been very little campaigning in Northolt Mandeville and South Acton which Labour are widely expected to retain.
However, party members recognise the danger of complacency with one senior Labour figure in the borough telling us, “Council by-elections in London tend to see turnout in the range of 20-40% and once you get to the lower end of that range, things can get very unpredictable. There are no dominating issues in either ward which might come into play but the lower turnout is, the more chance there is that a matter that a relatively small number of people are concerned about becomes decisive. However, with the attention of the other two parties taken up by Hanger Hill, we should be fine.”
The South Acton ward was first contested at an election in 2002 and, since then, has exclusively elected Labour councillors.
The closest contest was in 2006 when the Conservatives came with in 16 votes of taking one of the seats.
Labour has taken over half the vote in recent elections including last time out when boundary changes came into effect.
Confusingly, it is South Acton not Acton Central that contains much of the centre of Acton. The ward boundaries run from the Overground line in the east to the Piccadilly line in the west and Myrtle Road in the north, incorporating the South Acton Estate, the High Street and Churchfield Road.
Map of South Acton ward. Picture: Open Maps
Northolt Mandeville was represented by Conservative councillors between 2002 and 2006 but Labour took two of the seats in the 2010. Since then, it has increasingly tended to vote Labour and outgoing councillor Deirdre Costigan received over 60% of the vote in 2022.
The constituency includes is bounded by the A40 in the south, Islip Manor Meadows in the west and the Grand Union canal in the east stretching north to Northolt Park station.
Map of Northolt Mandeville ward. Picture: Open Maps
Candidates standing in the three wards:
Hanger Hill
Kate Crossland (The Green Party)
Sean Hanrahan (Conservatives)
Guneet Singh Malik (Labour Party)
Jonathan Mark Oxley (Liberal Democrat)
Fabio Pukaj (Reform UK)
Wagdi Thabit (Workers Party of Britain)
Northolt Mandeville
Andrew Bailey (Conservative)
Pedro Da Conceicao (Liberal Democrat)
Natalia Kubica (The Green Party)
Conrad Lewandowski (Reform UK)
Dominion Henry Theo Moffitt (Labour Party)
Eltayeb Omima (Workers Party of Britain)
South Acton
Julie Carter (Independent)
Lucas Davies Herbst (Workers Party of Britain)
Katie Lynn Douglas (Labour Party)
David Lawrence Hofman (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition)
Timothy William Bailey Hughes (Liberal Democrat)
Marco Manassero (Reform UK)
Kristian Mower (Conservative)
Andrew John Walkley (The Green Party)
You now need to show photo ID to vote in person at polling stations. Details of your polling station, including a map, will be on your polling card. To check if you are registered to vote you can contact Electoral Services by email elections@ealing.gov.uk or on 020 8825 7777.
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