Forum Topic

Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?

I've had a number of conversations in the area about what seems likely to be a general election in the near future. Nearly everybody I have spoken to voted Labour in the last election, these included not just life-long Labour party supporters but dyed in the wool Tories and floating voters.The reasons were various but boiled down to three main factors with Brexit being the main one obviously. The other factors most often mentioned were Theresa May's social care plans and the belief that there was zero chance of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister.Given that Rupa Huq is widely acknowledged to be a good constituency MP and she won a massive majority last time out it may seem preposterous to think in terms of her not winning at the next vote. However, it shouldn't be forgotten that she previously held the seat with a tiny majority and it was initially expected that she might not win.My unrepresentative sample suggests that circumstances this time will deprive her of some of the votes she had before. Jeremy Corbyn being prime minister is a much more likely scenario which means that disaffected Tories and many habitual Labour voters are not going to back her. Also her huge majority was in large part a protest vote against Brexit. Although her personal record on the subject is impeccable, her party's is not and many people wanting to signal support for remaining in the EU are going to vote Lib Dem. Plus this time the Greens will probably stand losing her more votes.Whether or not these changes are enough to put the seat at risk is debatable but Rupa probably needs to brace herself for a much reduced majority. It will be interesting to see the resources the Tories committ to the constituency because they will probably need a few surprise results to form a government and no doubt Dominic Cummings is looking very closely at all the data.

Andy Jones ● 2335d7 Comments

I've informally repolled some of the friends and colleagues on their feelings about the political situation at the moment.With regards to Ealing Central and Acton recent events could even have tipped it to a Tory victory if they are in anyway represntative. If Johnson can go to the country having made any sort of a deal he will win back some Tory remainers who were planning to vote Lib Dem. They might be cross about Brexit but not enough to continue to vote against type. They say the folding of the ERG in accepting a deal that is worse than one they previously regarded as unacceptable effectively ends the Brexit Party challenge. Farage may complain but 'Brexit has been got done' and people aren't going to look at the details.That means the Conservative vote could easily be above 35% and with the remain vote split that might be enough. The logical thing for a remainer to do would be to vote for Rupa Huq but even for lifelong Labour supporters the current leadership seems to be making a significant proportion switch to Lib Dem. Probably not enough to win but certainly enough to reduce Labour's vote significantly.

Andy Jones ● 2296d

HiJust wanted to send a virtual wave as your Green Party candidate for Ealing Central and Acton. Greens don't have the resources of the big 3 for leafleting/doorknocking etc but I'm going to be around at local events, and will certainly be at hustings to discuss the key issues- and to make sure the climate gets some time alongside Brexit. Also sharing my thoughts here:https://www.ealinggreenparty.org.uk/blog/Best wishesKate

Kate Crossland ● 2324d

......  (bizarrely, not our former councillor Vlod Barchuk) Not bizarre at all, I'd say he's got the right idea! 😂

Rosco White ● 2330d

Has the local Conservative party even got a candidate yet?Last time it was a disastrous choice.But it's really difficult for them: this is a remain seat and many local tories are remain (bizarrely, not our former councillor Vlod Barchuk) But where do they find a half-decent candidate who squares the circle?And would anyone sensible want to contest this seat at this time, with this Prime Minister for the Conservative Party?

Sara Nathan ● 2330d

I'm a life-long leftie, but personally I'm fed up with Labour. I abandoned them during the Blair/Iraq war years, drifted back when I thought Corbyn had something more to offer than the rest of the vacuum-packed Blair wannabes, but his inaction during the referendum horrified me, and Ealing council's seeming desire to bury Acton under "exclusive" developments while neglecting everything else has left me gobsmacked. I'd have been fine with Rupa Huq - I voted for her last time -  until she turned up at the meeting I attended about the future of the Old Library and the first thing she said was, "Who voted Leave?" thus needlessly dividing her audience right from the start.So where does that leave me?  What's left?  I'd rather cut off an arm than vote Tory, especially right now, and I'm still wary of the Lib Dems after the student fees betrayal.  I think that you'll see a lot of people like me, all out of faith and hope, voting for the least bad option, and if that means the Greens or the Women's Party, so be it.Expect chaos and a split vote:  It's what the main parties have worked very, very hard for.

Adam Kimmel ● 2331d

When we were canvassing for Rupa at the last election, we felt we'd have to work hard to protect her slim majority. In fact, as we got closer to election day, it became increasingly apparent on the streets of Ealing that there was a genuine enthusiasm for the Labour Party's manifesto and for Jeremy Corbyn as leader - rather more than among certain Labour MPs who were hoping to hang on to their seats but really wanted to lose the election big time so they could get rid of Jeremy.  As we know, that didn't happen, and the swing to Labour was far more than could be explained by any personal vote for Rupa or for many of our other successful candidates. In retrospect, we didn't need to spend all that effort on Rupa, and if we'd turned our attention to Uxbridge or Putney, we might have won even more seats. And with the election to come, the Labour Party will again have a manifesto that will appeal to the public, to set against nearly 10 years of needless Tory austerity and the hollow promises and outrageous behaviour of their present so-called leader.

Peter Evans ● 2334d

I don't think there's any such thing as a safe seat any more, for any party. Lifelong Labour voters have no faith in Corbyn. Lifelong Conservatives are horrified by their appalling incompetence these past four years. Somebody has cursed us to live in interesting times.

Susan Kelly ● 2335d